How College Conference Realignment Affects Sooner Football Recruiting

Lots of talk of NCAA conference realignment floating around these days--sparked by the Big Ten's admission that they're seriously considering expansion. Here in Big 12 country, there's speculation on how that would impact our conference schools. 

How would conference realignment affect my beloved Oklahoma Sooners? It's clear that OU's fortunes--particularly its recruiting fortunes--hinge on how things shake out relative to the Texas Longhorns. Here are 4 scenarios that could happen and how OU would be affected.

1. Both schools stay in the Big 12. 

This is the most likely scenario. The danger here is that if the Big 12 loses schools (Nebraska or Missouri seem to be the most talked-about candidates), it will have to replace them with less-prestigious football schools. That would lessen the overall quality of the conference and possibly negatively impact recruiting.

Although heck, maybe it wouldn't. For years USC got great players in no small part because it was a forgone conclusion that they would roll through the Pac-10.

2. Texas goes to another conference. OU stays in the Big 12. 

This is great for OU because regardless of whether Texas goes to the Big Ten or SEC, Stoops can say to recruits' parents: 'Do you really want to fly 4 million miles for the CLOSEST away game?' OU would gain major ground in Texas recruiting.

3. Both OU and Texas leave the Big 12, but go to separate conferences. 

This would be bad for OU because they wouldn't be able to use the angle in scenario 2, plus they would lose mindshare in the state of Texas. We'd get shafted in recruiting in Texas.

4. Both OU and Texas go to the same conference. 

The Sooners would likely lose ground (over time) in Texas recruiting since other schools from the new conference would get more traction invading Texas, but they would likely gain ground (over time) in other states in the new conference because of increased mindshare among recruits.

The SEC would be favorable in this case since a) the talent is richer in SEC states and b) recruits would be more comfortable culturally with Oklahoma than recruits from Big Ten states.

Thoughts? Feedback? Stray bullets?